Photo: Steve Nurenberg/Icon Sportswire

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Former Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty set the world aflame with his 2024 performance, starting the year with a six-game stretch of over 200 yards per game and 10 yards per attempt. He finished up with a pedestrian 180 yards per game and 7 yards per attempt, which were good enough to be a finalist for the Heisman.

He might not be the “generational” talent that caused people to drool over the likes of Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson in recent years, but he is plenty exciting and still given a strong starting grade by our scouting staff.

Of course, with all that hype comes some extra scrutiny, the perennial nitpicking that convinces people not to take a player as high as some might want. I’m here to offer just a little dab, a splash, of cold water based on how others with his rushing profile have performed at the next level.

Elusiveness

Jeanty showcased an incredible ability to break tackles in his college career, with a per-carry rate eclipsed by only Javonte Williams among rushers from the 2020 Draft to now with at least 100 NFL carries. His overall elusiveness (broken and missed tackles per attempt) puts him behind only Williams and Bijan Robinson.

That said, his missed tackle rate is in the middle of the pack, at least among NFL-caliber prospects. And that’s relevant because the results are a bit discouraging for players who had at least 5 percentage points more broken tackles than missed tackles in college (admittedly arbitrary), with worse performance measures and more injuries forcing missed time.

(For more info on Total Points, see our primer here.)

Dominance on outside runs

Jeanty had incredible success rates on outside runs in his last two years at Boise State, roughly 10 percentage points above average. On the flip side, he was less and less successful running between the guards each year.

Ashton Jeanty Success Rate on inside vs. outside runs

I’m not sure if you’d expect this, but in general inside runs and outside runs have roughly the same success rate. So when a player shows a tendency to be out of balance with that, it feels like something we should look a little deeper into.

Jeanty’s outside-inside profile—namely, his success coming more from outside runs—suggests that he might underperform, although he might also be a little healthier. Among players in the last several drafts with at least 200 college carries and 100 NFL carries in their first two years, outside-favoring players in college have been a little worse on a per-carry basis with slightly fewer injuries that have caused missed time.

So you’re out on this guy?

I’ve somehow put this really exciting player into two buckets that suggest he’s less exciting. That doesn’t mean I’m out, but it does mean I’m glad we’re not hearing top-5-pick level hype.

Of course, sample size is something we need to be mindful of; we just don’t have a ton of backs to judge on (at least over the years SIS has charted everything above). Have to mention that.

And not all of these players had the same overall grade coming out. Jeanty’s comps in terms of the combination of these splits are J.K. Dobbins, Javonte Williams, Kenneth Gainwell, Dameon Pierce, Zamir White, and Cam Akers. None of them had the high-level projection that Jeanty does.

But by the same token, the characterization we’re looking at is stylistic, and not about performance. Yes, we’re using success rate and broken and missed tackles, all of which express skill, but it’s the relative success across splits that we actually care about here. So I think we’re at least justified in bringing some suspicion to the table.

Little bonus nugget

To whatever extent you buy what I’m selling above, you might be interested in which of this year’s backs fall into the cluster that has the best historical production. The one that features Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Devon Achane, Kyren Williams, Jaylen Warren, and Bucky Irving.

North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton is in there, although just barely. His career broken tackle rate is 4.9 percentage points higher than his missed tackle rate. He has the same grade from our staff as Jeanty.

Similar story with Arizona State’s Cam Skattebo, except with a 4.8 and a low-end starter grade from our staff.

If you want someone who clears the thresholds easily, Oklahoma State’s Ollie Gordon II fits the bill. He has a three-down backup grade, along with a lot of other backs on our board.